The State Department's Director of Policy Planning, Richard Haass, said the United States and a number of other governments are preparing to issue a demand that Iraq comply immediately and in full with U.N. resolutions requiring the elimination of its weapons of mass destruction, or else face military force to bring about compliance.

"[W]hat you're going to see from the United States, and you're going to see, I believe, from quite a few other governments, is a demand that Iraq comply in full. Absent such compliance, then I think the President made clear last night that, unfortunately, we are moving closer to where we'll have no choice but to resort to force to bring about Iraqi compliance," Haass said in an interview with the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation January 29....

Haass said that even if a scheduled February 14 report by the U.N. weapons inspectors indicated more Iraqi cooperation with inspectors, it would not be enough to extend the inspection process.

"A more positive report itself is not enough. Sometimes in life, situations are black or white, and Iraq either has to comply with its international obligations or not," Haass said. "If they, for example, squeeze out a little bit of information, that still doesn't make it possible for the inspectors to do their job."

Haass said no timetable for military action has been set, but the world does not have the luxury to wait.

"Why should we want to live months or years under the threat of Saddam Hussein using or worse yet, even, giving to some terrorist group like al-Qaida, handing off to them chemical or biological weapons?" Haass said.
State Dept - Washington File, published 01-30-2003

In an interview on Wednesday, Dr Blix, the United Nations chief weapons inspector, seemed determined to dispel any impression that his report was intended to support the United States' campaign to build world support for a war to disarm Saddam Hussein.

"Whatever we say will be used by some," Dr Blix said, adding that he had strived to be "as factual and conscientious" as possible. "I did not tailor my report to the political wishes or hopes in Baghdad or Washington or any other place."

Dr Blix took issue with what he said were US Secretary of State Colin Powell's claims that the inspectors had found that Iraqi officials were hiding and moving illicit materials within and outside of Iraq to prevent their discovery. He said that the inspectors had reported no such incidents.

Similarly, he said, he had not seen convincing evidence that Iraq was sending weapons scientists to other countries to prevent them from being interviewed.


Nor had he any reason to believe, as President George Bush charged in his State of the Union speech, that Iraqi agents were posing as scientists, or that his inspection agency had been penetrated by Iraqi agents and that sensitive information might have been leaked to Baghdad.

Finally, he said, he had seen no persuasive indications of Iraqi ties to al-Qaeda. "There are other states where there appear to be stronger links," such as Afghanistan, Dr Blix said. "It's bad enough that Iraq may have weapons of mass destruction."

[Article also archived here.]
New York Times, published 02-01-2003

The Pentagon admitted yesterday that small numbers of CIA operatives are already on the ground inside northern Iraq ahead of a possible US-led attack.

Air Force General Richard Myers confirmed reports that some US personnel are in northern Iraq to reporters at the Pentagon. He said he did not want to discuss the disposition of US forces, but then added, "There are not significant numbers of military forces in northern Iraq right now."

In recent weeks another defence official was reported as saying: "There have been very small numbers that have moved in and out of the area, more CIA than military."

Much of northern Iraq is outside the control of the Iraqi government. Under protection of US enforcement of a "no-fly" zone, Kurdish groups have virtual autonomy. Before the attack on Afghanistan following September 11, CIA and US and British special forces were believed to have been inside the country ahead of the first air strikes, establishing intelligence and targets.
The Guardian , published 01-30-2003

The buildup of U.S. troops in the Persian Gulf region is now approaching 90,000 land, sea and air forces, and that number likely will double within two weeks, officials said Thursday.

Nearly a third of the total is in Kuwait, which would be the main launching pad for a U.S.-led invasion to disarm Iraq.

The Pentagon is not announcing either specific unit deployments or the arrival of forces in the Gulf area, but officials familiar with details of the buildup said it is growing steadily and by thousands each week.

By mid-February there are expected to be nearly 180,000 troops in the region, and the total could reach 250,000 later.
Associated Press, published 01-30-2003

Officials yesterday confirmed that the US will supply Jordan with Patriot antimissile batteries as protection against a possible Scud missile attack by Mr. Hussein. Hussein launched more than 80 Scuds at Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Qatar in the 1991 Gulf War - nearly 40 flew directly over Jordan."We expect that two to three Patriots will arrive in the next weeks," says Jordan's minister of information, Mohammed Adwan. "I assume they are up-to-date Patriots."

But while Jordan becomes the fifth nation in the region with Patriots, the agreement between Amman and Washington could stir even greater anti-US sentiment in Jordan from clerics who have already declared jihad against US interests in the kingdom.

The ire of radicals could be inflamed because the arrival of the Patriots might pave the way for US troops to use Jordan as a "third front" in a war against Iraq. Amman has repeatedly said that it would not allow US troops to mount an offensive from its soil. But Western diplomats say that Jordan will permit the US to conduct search-and-rescue missions from its territory, and US officials doubt that time will allow for the training of Jordanian troops to operate the Patriots without a US military presence.
Christian Science Monitor, published 01-30-2003

Q: Sir, are you open to giving Saddam a final deadline, and you willing to let him slip into exile -- this, a man who recently said he wants to break the neck of our country?

THE PRESIDENT: First, let me echo the comments of my National Security Advisor, who the other day in commenting about this process said this is a matter of weeks, not months. In other words, for the sake of peace, this issue must be resolved. Hopefully, it can be done peacefully. Hopefully the pressure of the free world will convince Mr. Saddam Hussein to relinquish power. And should he choose to leave the country, along with a lot of the other henchmen who have tortured the Iraqi people, we would welcome that, of course.

I will tell my friend, Silvio, that the use of military troops is my last choice, not my first. The commitment of young men and Americans into battle is a difficult decision, because I understand the cost of war.
Remarks by the President and Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi , published 01-30-2003

Vice President Dick Cheney praised the ongoing war against al Qaeda and other terrorist groups and said the Bush Administration's confrontation of Iraq was "crucial" to winning the wider war against terrorism.

Speaking January 30 to the 30th Annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Arlington, Virginia, Cheney recalled the list of chemical and biological weapons-related material the United Nations believes is in Iraq, and warned that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein "could decide secretly to provide weapons of mass destruction to terrorists for use against us."

"[A]s the President said on Tuesday night, it would take just one vial, one canister, one crate to bring a day of horror to our nation unlike any we have ever known. That is why confronting the threat posed by Iraq is not a distraction from the war on terror, it is absolutely crucial to winning the war on terror," said Cheney.
Remarks by Vice President at 30th Annual Consevative Political Action Conference, published 01-30-2003

Prime ministers or presidents of eight European countries (the Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom) called in an open letter for preservation of U.S.-European unity and for full compliance by Iraq with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1441 on disarmament.

[Full text of statement at link below]
Joint Statment from eight European leaders, published 01-31-2003

The United States is conducting a secret 'dirty tricks' campaign against UN Security Council delegations in New York as part of its battle to win votes in favour of war against Iraq.

Details of the aggressive surveillance operation, which involves interception of the home and office telephones and the emails of UN delegates in New York, are revealed in a document leaked to The Observer."

'The existence of the surveillance operation, understood to have been requested by President Bush's National Security Adviser, Condoleezza Rice, is deeply embarrassing to the Americans in the middle of their efforts to win over the undecided delegations.'
The Guardian, published 03-02-2003

To: [Recipients withheld]
From: FRANK KOZA, Def Chief of Staff (Regional Targets)
CIV/NSA
Sent on Jan 31 2003 0:16
Subject: Reflections of Iraq Debate/Votes at UN-RT Actions + Potential for Related Contributions
Importance: HIGH
Top Secret//COMINT//X1

As you've likely heard by now, the Agency is mounting a surge particularly directed at the UN Security Council (UNSC) members (minus US and GBR of course) for insights as to how to membership is reacting to the on-going debate RE: Iraq, plans to vote on any related resolutions, what related policies/ negotiating positions they may be considering, alliances/ dependencies, etc - the whole gamut of information that could give US policymakers an edge in obtaining results favorable to US goals or to head off surprises. ...

We'd appreciate your support in getting the word to your analysts who might have similar, more in-direct access to valuable information from accesses in your product lines. I suspect that you'll be hearing more along these lines in formal channels - especially as this effort will probably peak (at least for this specific focus) in the middle of next week, following the SecState's presentation to the UNSC.

Thanks for your help

[Full text of memo at link below]
The Guardian, published 03-02-2003

U.S. troops in Germany that would form part of a northern front in a war against Iraq have received orders to pack up and prepare to head to Turkey as the Turkish government nears a crucial decision on whether to accept the forces.

Turkey's National Security Council, which is dominated by powerful senior generals, has scheduled a meeting Friday to consider a recommendation to the Turkish parliament, which has the final say on a U.S. petition to base troops in Turkey for a possible invasion.

U.S. military officials said today that nearly 2,000 troops from the 1st Infantry Division in Germany were preparing to depart for Turkey. That deployment would largely involve headquarters staff, intelligence, communications and other support units -- lead elements of a larger, armored force, the bulk of which will likely come from the 4th Infantry Division in Texas, military officials said.
Washington Post, published 01-31-2001

The 11-ship battle group led by the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt will head directly overseas after training under way in Puerto Rico ends in early February, the Navy said Friday.

Last week, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld ordered the Navy to send two carrier battle groups to join two battle groups positioned within striking distance of Iraq. Atlantic Fleet commander Adm. Robert J. Natter decided that the Norfolk-based Roosevelt would be one of those carriers, assuming it successfully completed training.

Once the training ends and the carrier is certified to deploy, the Roosevelt "is not scheduled to return to home port before deploying," Lt. Scott McIlnay, an Atlantic Fleet spokesman, said Friday.

The battle group, with 8,000 sailors and Marines, will deploy to Central Command's area of responsibility, which includes the Middle East, McIlnay said.
Associated Press, published 01-31-2003

Iraq's invitation to the chief U.N. weapons inspectors to visit Baghdad before their next report to the U.N. Security Council appears to be part of an old pattern, not an indication of any Iraqi change of attitude, U.S. Ambassador John Negroponte said January 31.

On January 30 Iraq proposed that Hans Blix, the head of the U.N. Monitoring Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), and Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), return to Baghdad for more talks aimed at bolstering "cooperation and transparency," according to a statement by the Iraqi Foreign Ministry. Iraq suggested the meetings take place before February 10....

"My first reaction would be that this is a tactic of some sort that does not represent any fundamental change in their basic approach to the inspections and to resolution 1441, which has been one of non-cooperation in every respect," the ambassador said.
State Dept - Washington File, published 01-31-2003

Associated Press - American bombers are hitting hard inside Iraq, getting a head start toward disabling Saddam Hussein's defenses in the south, while other U.S. forces are on the ground in the north preparing for war.

U.S. and British warplanes bombed three dozen sites in January, most associated with air defense communications in the southeast. That's the route invading U.S. ground troops probably would take if war should come. The Pentagon also has acknowledged it has inserted a small number of troops into the north, although it refuses to describe their mission. ...

"We're kind of getting a head start," Lexington Institute military analyst Loren Thompson said, speaking of the increasing airstrikes. "We're taking advantage of the situation to reduce Iraqi defenses so we can use the full weight of our air power when the war does come."

[Archived article also online here.]

FOX News, published 01-31-2003

A memo of a two-hour meeting between the two leaders at the White House on January 31 2003 - nearly two months before the invasion - reveals that Mr Bush made it clear the US intended to invade whether or not there was a second UN resolution and even if UN inspectors found no evidence of a banned Iraqi weapons programme. [...]

Mr Bush told Mr Blair that the US was so worried about the failure to find hard evidence against Saddam that it thought of "flying U2 reconnaissance aircraft planes with fighter cover over Iraq, painted in UN colours". Mr Bush added: "If Saddam fired on them, he would be in breach [of UN resolutions]".

Mr Bush even expressed the hope that a defector would be extracted from Iraq and give a "public presentation about Saddam's WMD". He is also said to have referred Mr Blair to a "small possibility" that Saddam would be "assassinated".

Mr Blair told the US president that a second UN resolution would be an "insurance policy", providing "international cover, including with the Arabs" if anything went wrong with the military campaign, or if Saddam increased the stakes by burning oil wells, killing children, or fomenting internal divisions within Iraq.

Mr Bush told the prime minister that he "thought it unlikely that there would be internecine warfare between the different religious and ethnic groups". Mr Blair did not demur, according to the book.

Additional articles:
The Christian Science Monitor
CBS News/Associated Press-London
CNN/Associated Press-London
USA Today
The Guardian, published 02-03-2006

In late January 2003, as Secretary of State Colin Powell prepared to argue the Bush administration's case against Iraq at the United Nations, veteran CIA officer Tyler Drumheller sat down with a classified draft of Powell's speech to look for errors. He found a whopper: a claim about mobile biological labs built by Iraq for germ warfare.

Drumheller instantly recognized the source, an Iraqi defector suspected of being mentally unstable and a liar. The CIA officer took his pen, he recounted in an interview, and crossed out the whole paragraph.

A few days later, the lines were back in the speech. Powell stood before the U.N. Security Council on Feb. 5 and said: "We have first-hand descriptions of biological weapons factories on wheels and on rails."

The sentence took Drumheller completely by surprise.

"We thought we had taken care of the problem," said the man who was the CIA's European operations chief before retiring last year, "but I turn on the television and there it was, again."
Washington Post, published 06-25-2006

"...British intelligence received reports that Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab Zarqawi was establishing sleeper cells in Baghdad that would attack U.S. forces after they occupied the city..."

..."These cells apparently intend to attack U.S. targets using car bombs and other weapons" ...
Washington Post, published 07-15-2004

... For six hours that Saturday, the men and women of the Bush administration argued about what Secretary of State Colin Powell should--and should not--say at the United Nations Security Council four days later. Not all the secret intelligence about Saddam Hussein's misdeeds, they found, stood up to close scrutiny. At one point during the rehearsal, Powell tossed several pages in the air. "I'm not reading this," he declared. "This is bulls- - -."

Just how good was America's intelligence on Iraq? Seven weeks after the end of the war, no hard evidence has been turned up on the ground to support the charge that Iraq posed an imminent threat to U.S. national security--no chemical weapons in the field, no Scud missiles in the western desert, no biological agents. ...
U.S. News and World Report, published 06-09-2003

The U.S. is not yet at war with Saddam Hussein. Not officially. But quietly, over the past few months, some of its savviest warriors have sneaked into his country. They have been secretly prowling the Kurdish-controlled enclave in northern Iraq, trying to organize a guerrilla force that could guide American soldiers invading from the north, hunting for targets that U.S. warplanes might bomb, setting up networks to hide U.S. pilots who might be shot down and mapping out escape routes to get them out. And they are doing the same in southern Iraq with dissident Shi'ites.

But the biggest surprise of all is that they are not even soldiers; they are spies, part of the CIA's rough and ready, supersecret Special Operations Group (SOG).

[Original web page requires paid subscription to view]
TIME Magazine, published 02-03-2003

Excluding forces deployed in direct support of Operation Enduring Freedom, there are probably about 70,000 military personnel in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, including about 450 aircraft of all types.

The number of troops deployed in the area fluctuates on a daily basis, and has averaged between 20,000 and 25,000 in recent years, with typically about 200 aircraft in the region. Forces in the region include a mix of special operations forces deployed in support of US Central Command operations. To enhance force protection throughout the region, additional military security personnel are also deployed.

Ground forces include a variety of units that are normally deployed in the region, which total about 3,700 troops. Forces in the region include a Patriot missile task force with two batteries deployed in Saudi Arabia and two in Kuwait. Virtually all of 3rd Infantry Division has been deployed to Kuwait, though it is possible that some battalions are still in the process of deploying. It is believed that the total Army presence in the region is nearly 25,000 soldiers.
GlobalSecurity.org, published 08-2005

Senior US military officials have been outlining what they say are their plans for a military assault on Iraq.

The onslaught would begin with ground attacks combined with a massive assault from the air, defence officials told the BBC.

Reports suggest that 3,000 precision bombs and missiles could be employed in the first two days of the air strike - 10 times the number used in the opening stages of the 1991 Gulf War.

Details of the Pentagon's war plan emerged as Baghdad accused Washington of fabricating evidence that Iraq possesses banned nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. ...

General Hossam Mohammed Amin - responsible for liaising with UN weapons inspectors - told the BBC that Mr Powell would unveil "fabricated space photos or aerial photos."

He said Mr Powell's testimony - which US officials and commentators have hinted is dramatically damning - was part of a "political game."
BBC - World, published 02-03-2003

Secretary of State Colin Powell's article in the February 3 Wall Street Journal is "a good guide to what he's going to say" to the United Nations Security Council February 5, White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer told reporters February 3.

In the article, titled "We Will Not Shrink From War," Powell states that he will present the Security Council with intelligence "showing further evidence of Iraq's pattern of deception" but says the evidence will not include a "smoking gun."

Asked about this, Fleischer said the Bush administration knows "from a wide variety of means" that Saddam Hussein possesses chemical and biological weapons.
United Nations - Washington File, published 02-03-2003

The chief UN weapons inspector yesterday dismissed what has been billed as a central claim of the speech the US secretary of state, Colin Powell, will make today to the UN security council.

Hans Blix said there was no evidence of mobile biological weapons laboratories or of Iraq trying to foil inspectors by moving equipment before his teams arrived.

In a series of leaks or previews, the state department has said Mr Powell will allege that Iraq moved mobile biological weapons laboratories ahead of an inspection. Dr Blix said he had already inspected two alleged mobile labs and found nothing: "Two food-testing trucks have been inspected and nothing has been found."

Dr Blix said that the problem of bio-weapons laboratories on trucks had been around for a while and that he had received tips from the US that led him to inspect trucks in Iraq. ...

[Article also archived at Global Policy Forum here.]
The Guardian, published 02-05-2003

Using audio tapes, reconnaissance photos, and details from informers, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell February 5 gave evidence to the U.N. Security Council that he said revealed Saddam Hussein's "web of lies" designed to hide Iraqi chemical and biological weapons capabilities and efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

In a one-and-a-half-hour presentation before a crowded council chamber and television cameras broadcasting worldwide, Powell carefully detailed what he said were Iraqi programs to produce and store chemical and biological weapons, extend the range of ballistic missiles, develop nuclear weapons, continue and increase longstanding cooperation with terrorists, and trample the human rights of its citizens....

"The material I will present to you comes from a variety of sources....

Numerous human sources tell us that the Iraqis are moving, not just documents and hard drives, but weapons of mass destruction to keep them from being found by inspectors....

And that is my third point. And it is key. The Iraqis have never accounted for all of the biological weapons they admitted they had and we know they had. They have never accounted for all the organic material used to make them. And they have not accounted for many of the weapons filled with these agents such as there are 400 bombs. This is evidence, not conjecture. This is true. This is all well-documented."

[Note to readers: A summary of this speech can be read here]

In this speech, Secretary Powell states that many "sources" of information confirm the fact that Iraq had developed mobile laboratories for making biological weapons. On April 2, 2004 he admits he may have been mistaken.
Secretary of State Colin Powell Addresses the UN Security Council , published 02-05-2003

Parliament authorized the United States to renovate several Turkish military bases and ports today for use in a war against Iraq, the first step in an emerging decision to allow U.S. troops to use Turkish soil to open a northern front against President Saddam Hussein.

In a closed session and secret vote that underscored deep anxiety here about the possible war, the parliament stopped short of giving the United States overall permission to station troops here. But Turkish officials and Western diplomats said that, with the government now pushing for it, permission is likely to be formalized when parliament reconvenes after the Muslim holiday of Bayram, in about 12 days.
Washington Post, published 02-06-2003

Preparing to deploy to the Persian Gulf region, the Army's 101st Airborne Division started moving helicopters from its headquarters in Kentucky to the Port of Jacksonville yesterday before Secretary of State Colin L. Powell began his address on Iraqi arms violations to the U.N. Security Council.

The air mobile division, equipped with more than 200 gunship and transport helicopters, has not received a formal deployment order from the Pentagon, a spokesman said at the division's Fort Campbell, Ky., headquarters.
Washington Post, published 02-06-2003

Iraq's possession of weapons of mass destruction poses a threat to the world, and the United Nations Security Council "must not back down" when its demands for the regime to disarm are "being defied and mocked by a dictator," President Bush said February 6.

Speaking at the White House, with Secretary of State Colin Powell at his side, Bush praised the secretary for his "careful and powerful presentation of the facts," before the U.N. Security Council the day before....

"The United States," he said, "would welcome and support a new resolution that makes clear the Security Council stands behind its previous demands."

"Yet resolutions mean little without resolve," he said. "And the United States along with a growing coalition of nations is resolved to take whatever action is necessary to defend ourselves and disarm the Iraqi regime."...

Bush also said that Saddam Hussein "has longstanding, direct and continuing ties" to the al Qaeda terrorist network, including a cell in Iraq, and that group, he said, "has plotted terrorism against France, Spain, Italy, Germany, the Republic of Georgia and Russia and was caught producing poisons in London."

"The game is over. All the world can rise to this moment," he said.
President Bush: "World Can Rise to This Moment", published 02-06-2003

The Iraqi regime has actively and secretly attempted to obtain equipment needed to produce chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. Firsthand witnesses have informed us that Iraq has at least seven mobile factories for the production of biological agents, equipment mounted on trucks and rails to evade discovery. Using these factories, Iraq could produce within just months hundreds of pounds of biological poisons.

The Iraqi regime has acquired and tested the means to deliver weapons of mass destruction. All the world has now seen the footage of an Iraqi Mirage aircraft with a fuel tank modified to spray biological agents over wide areas. Iraq has developed spray devices that could be used on unmanned aerial vehicles with ranges far beyond what is permitted by the Security Council. A UAV launched from a vessel off the American coast could reach hundreds of miles inland."

"One of the greatest dangers we face is that weapons of mass destruction might be passed to terrorists, who would not hesitate to use those weapons. Saddam Hussein has longstanding, direct and continuing ties to terrorist networks. Senior members of Iraqi intelligence and al Qaeda have met at least eight times since the early 1990s. Iraq has sent bomb-making and document forgery experts to work with al Qaeda. Iraq has also provided al Qaeda with chemical and biological weapons training.

We also know that Iraq is harboring a terrorist network, headed by a senior al Qaeda terrorist planner. The network runs a poison and explosive training center in northeast Iraq, and many of its leaders are known to be in Baghdad. The head of this network traveled to Baghdad for medical treatment and stayed for months. Nearly two dozen associates joined him there and have been operating in Baghdad for more than eight months.
President Bush: "World Can Rise to This Moment", published 02-06-2003

President George Bush "has shown patience" throughout the current crisis with Iraq, said Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. However, he added that patience is running out, and "it is time for Iraq and Saddam Hussein to make the choice to avoid war and it is his choice."

The urgency for action stems from the serious prospect of Iraq obtaining the world's deadliest weapons, he said.

"We do feel that the nexus of a thirst for weapons of mass destruction, the unaccounted for weapons that Dr. Blix indicates that the Iraqis have, and the nexus with terrorism all make time of the essence as far as we are concerned," said Armitage.

[A note to the readers: 11/08/02 UN Resolution 1441 adopted, 11/18/02 Weapons Inspectors Arrive in Iraq
01/27/03 UNMOVIC Inspectors 1st scheduled report]
State Dept Transcript of Richard Armitage interview on Al-Jazeera, published 02-06-2003

Downing Street was last night plunged into acute international embarrassment after it emerged that large parts of the British government's latest dossier on Iraq - allegedly based on 'intelligence material' - were taken from published academic articles, some of them several years old.

Amid charges of "scandalous" plagiarism on the night when Tony Blair attempted to rally support for the US-led campaign against Saddam Hussein, Whitehall's dismay was compounded by the knowledge that the disputed document was singled out for praise by the US secretary of state, Colin Powell, in his speech to the UN security council on Wednesday. ...

But on Channel 4 News last night it was revealed that four of the report's 19 pages had been copied - with only minor editing and a few insertions - from the internet version of an article by Ibrahim al-Marashi which appeared in the Middle East Review of International Affairs last September.

Though that was not the only textual embarrassment No 10 seemed determined to tough it out last night.

At the bottom of the article (link below) are "Key Documents" pertaining to the UK dossier for the reader to view and compare. There is also a sample of plagerized text to view online here.
The Guardian , published 02-07-2003

The government yesterday committed more than 100 aircraft - a third of the RAF's frontline fleet - to the looming war against Iraq in which over 40,000 British armed forces personnel could be engaged.

Three-quarters of the planes being deployed to the Gulf will be Tornado and Harrier strike aircraft which would be involved in a bombing campaign led by the United States.

The move, announced in the Commons by the defence secretary, Geoff Hoon, is the last of the three elements of sea, ground and air power making up a force almost as large as Britain's contribution at the height of the 1991 Gulf war.

The air package will include 27 Puma and Chinook helicopters ready to drop SAS soldiers and paratroopers into Iraqi territory.

Also included are E3D Sentry aircraft operating an airborne command and control system, Jaguar and Tornado aircraft used for reconnaissance, VC10 and Tristar air-to-air refuelling aircraft, Hercules transport planes, and the fighter version of the Tornado.

They will be crewed, fuelled, serviced and protected by more than 8,000 RAF personnel, including 1,600 reservists.
The Guardian , published 02-07-2003

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld signed orders Thursday sending the Army's 101st Airborne Division and the USS Kitty Hawk, a fifth aircraft carrier, to the Persian Gulf, both major steps toward deployment of the full force necessary for a war against Iraq, defense officials said.

Coming a day after Secretary of State Colin Powell's presentation on Iraqi arms violations to the UN Security Council, Rumsfeld's moves put the Pentagon's steady buildup of forces into a final, climactic phase. More than 125,000 U.S. service members are in the region, a number expected to increase sharply by mid-February, one defense official said.

[Original web page no longer available]
Washington Post, published 02-07-2003

Warning that Saddam Hussein "will be stopped," President Bush challenged the United Nations on Thursday to quickly pass a tough second resolution ensuring Iraq's disarmament by force if necessary. "The U.N. must not back down," Bush said at the White House. "All the world can rise to this moment." Bush, with Secretary of State Colin L. Powell at his side, also warned Baghdad not to engage in any "empty concessions" and "transparently false denials" as part of a "last-minute game of deception." "The game is over," he said.

[Original web page no longer available]
Los Angeles Times, published 02-07-2003

The international community should begin preparing for war with Iraq in the face of that country's continued defiance of U.N. resolutions to disarm itself of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), according to Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld....

"There is another reason to prepare now: NATO member nations have an Article V commitment to defend Turkey, should it come under attack by Iraq," Rumsfeld continued. "Those preventing the Alliance from taking even minimum measures to prepare to do so, risk undermining the credibility of the NATO Alliance."

Rumsfeld warned that delaying preparations for war with Iraq would also undermine the credibility of the United Nations.
Secretary Rumsfeld Address to the Munich Conference on European Security Policy Munich, Germany, published 02-08-2003

This decision for an increased threat condition designation Is based on specific intelligence received and analyzed by the full intelligence community. This information has been corroborated by multiple intelligence sources.

Since September the 11th, the U.S. intelligence community has indicated that the Al Qaida terrorist network is still determined to attack innocent Americans, both here and abroad....

ASHCROFT: Recent intelligence reports suggests that Al Qaida leaders have emphasized planning for attacks on apartment buildings, hotels and other soft or lightly secured targets in the United States.

[This High (Orange) Threat level remains in effect until Feb. 27, 2003 when it was lowered to Elevated (Yellow)]
Remarks by John Ashcroft, Tom Ridge and FBI Director Robert Mueller, published 02-07-2003

To respond to Powell's contention, Iraq's weapons-monitoring directorate organized a field trip for about 100 journalists, escorting them to Al Musayyib and another rocket-testing facility. At both sites, officials insisted they test and assemble only missiles whose ranges and payloads do not violate U.N. disarmament resolutions.

Powell's "allegations are untrue and absolutely baseless," said the facility's director, Karim Jabbar. On any day, he said, "Colin Powell can claim there is intense activity here . . . because we are busy assembling and testing." ...

The two sites were among the least-sensitive of those Powell mentioned in his presentation. U.N. inspectors have visited both of them more than once. The inspectors even observed a missile engine test at Al Rafah, which is near the town of Al Fallujah about 50 miles west of Baghdad. The inspectors also have placed small metallic identification stickers on missiles at Al Musayyib, which is about 50 miles south of Baghdad.

It was impossible for the journalists to determine whether the missiles on display at Al Musayyib or the design of the stand at Al Rafah violate U.N. resolutions passed after the 1991 Persian Gulf War to limit Iraq's weapons. But in his report to the Security Council last month, the chief U.N. weapons inspector, Hans Blix, did not mention either site as a potential concern -- a point Iraqi officials were quick to point out today.

"The inspectors looked at everything technical. They copied all the plans. They asked many questions," Jassem said. "They found no problem with it."

[Article also archived online here.]
Washington Post, published 02-07-2003

"The Iraqi regime has actively and secretly attempted to obtain equipment needed to produce chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. Firsthand witnesses have informed us that Iraq has at least seven mobile factories for the production of biological agents -- equipment mounted on trucks and rails to evade discovery. ....

And we have sources that tell us that Saddam Hussein recently authorized Iraqi field commanders to use chemical weapons -- the very weapons the dictator tells us he does not have. ....

Having made its demands, the Security Council must not back down when those demands are defied and mocked by a dictator. The United States would welcome and support a new resolution making clear that the Security Council stands behinds its previous demands."
President's Radio Address, published 02-08-2003

The United States still hopes to avoid war with Iraq, but whether or not a peaceful solution is possible depends on Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Secretary of State Colin Powell said in an interview on NBC's Meet the Press February 9.

"What [Saddam Hussein] has to do is comply, as required by the UN Resolution 1441, and turn over all the documents, make available all the scientists and engineers for interview, show us everything that he has been doing for these many years with respect to weapons of mass destruction," Powell said.

"So far, he has ignored the will of the United Nations, the will of the Security Council, as expressed in 1441. So we are running out of time and he has only got a short period of time left to demonstrate compliance or force will have to be used to bring him into compliance," the Secretary continued.

[Note to reader: This is just one, of a series of three Sunday talk shows that Powell conducted on 2/09/03. For a summary of those interviews please visit here or for list of February, 2003 remarks by Powell click here]
State Dept - Washington File, published 02-09-2003

Commercial airlines have been enlisted by DoD to transport troops and equipment as part of the buildup for possible war with Iraq.

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld ordered the activation of Stage 1 of the Civil Reserve Air Fleet, according to a Feb. 8 Defense Department press release. The CRAF, created in 1952, boosts U.S. military airlift capability with civilian planes, if needed.

Under Stage 1, 22 U.S. airline companies will make 47 of their passenger airliners and 31 cargo planes available for military use, the DoD release said. Currently, only the 47 passenger aircraft are being used. The cargo planes could be drafted into service quickly if needed.
Dept of Defense - American Forces Press Service, published 02-10-2003

The American Forces Information Service reported Thursday more than 100,000 troops from all services were serving in the region controlled by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which includes the Middle East, Central Asia and eastern Africa. Of those, 9,000 people are involved in supporting ongoing efforts against terrorists in Afghanistan, and would not be counted in the buildup for Iraq.

According to the service, the forces ready to wage war include: [extensive listings of forces in Persian Gulf]...

[Original Defense Week web page no longer available]
Defense Week, published 02-10-2003

In response to Iraq's reported willingness to allow reconnaissance flights and other proposed measures seeming to suggest an increase in cooperation with United Nations weapons inspectors, State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher repeated that the issue at hand is Iraq's immediate and full compliance with U.N. resolutions.

"I haven't seen anything that's worth getting excited about," said Boucher, speaking at the February 10 State Department briefing....

Boucher said that Iraq had until February 14, when the weapons inspectors will report next to the Council, to provide those answers.
State Dept Press Briefing, published 02-10-2003

United Nations -- As chief weapons inspectors head back to New York February 10 to report to the U.N. Security Council on two days of meetings with Iraqi officials, it appears that Iraq has given in on two of the minor issues plaguing the inspectors....

Iraq's U.N. ambassador, Mohammed Aldouri, said February 10 that he has delivered a letter to the U.N. Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) saying that Baghdad will allow the weapons inspectors to use U-2 surveillance planes as part of the inspection process.

Asked by journalists if the U-2 flights would be allowed without conditions, Aldouri answered "yes."
State Dept - Washington File, published 02-10-2003

Russia, Germany and France, in close coordination, reaffirm that the disarmament of Iraq, in accordance with the relevant UN resolutions since UNSCR 687, is the common aim of the international community, and that it must be pursued to its conclusion within the shortest possible period. ...

UNSCR 1441, adopted unanimously by the Security Council, provides a framework whose possibilities have not yet been thoroughly explored.

The inspections conducted by UNMOVIC and the IAEA have already yielded results. Russia, Germany and France favour the continuation of the inspections and the substantial strengthening of their human and technical capabilities by all possible means and in consultation with the inspectors, within the framework of UNSCR 1441.
French Embassy in the UK, published 02-10-2003

QUESTION: What about NATO's role? Belgium now says it will veto any attempt to provide help to Turkey to defend itself. Is this something the administration can live with, or is it a major obstacle?

MR. McCLELLAN: Two points. We support the request under Article IV of Turkey. And I think it's important to note that the request from a country under Article IV that faces an imminent threat goes to the very core of the NATO alliance and its purpose.

QUESTION: What can you do about this veto threat?

MR. McCLELLAN: Well, again, I think what's important to remind NATO members, remind the international community is that this type of request under Article IV goes to the core of the NATO alliance.

QUESTION: Is this some kind of ultimate test of the alliance?

MR. McCLELLAN: This is about an imminent threat.

[Note to reader: This discussion concerned the NATO debate over the possible defense of Turkey, if needed. Please see background information here]
Press Gaggle by Scott McClellan, published 02-10-2003

Our work will aim to achieve the objectives outlined by my colleague, Under Secretary of State Grossman:

First, demonstrate to the Iraqi people and the world that the United States aspires to liberate, not occupy or control them or their economic resources.

Second, eliminate Iraq's chemical and biological weapons, its nuclear program, the related delivery systems, and the related research and production facilities. This will be a complex, dangerous and expensive task.

Third, eliminate likewise Iraq's terrorist infrastructure. A key element of U.S. strategy in the global war on terrorism is exploiting the information about terrorist networks that the coalition acquires through our military and law enforcement actions.

Fourth, safeguard the territorial unity of Iraq. The United States does not support Iraq's disintegration or dismemberment.

Fifth, begin the process of economic and political reconstruction, working to put Iraq on a path to become a prosperous and free country. The U.S. government shares with many Iraqis the hope that their country will enjoy the rule of law and other institutions of democracy under a broad-based government that represents the various parts of Iraqi society.
Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, published 02-11-2003

Mr. Chairman, last year—in the wake of the September 11 attack on our country—I focused my remarks on the clear and present danger posed by terrorists who seek to destroy who we are and what we stand for. The national security environment that exists today is significantly more complex than that of a year ago. ...

Iraq is harboring senior members of a terrorist network led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a close associate of Usama Bin Ladin [Laden]. We know Zarqawi's network was behind the poison plots in Europe that I discussed earlier as well as the assassination of a US State Department employee in Jordan.

Iraq has in the past provided training in document forgery and bomb-making to al-Qa'ida. It also provided training in poisons and gasses to two al-Qa'ida associates; one of these associates characterized the relationship he forged with Iraqi officials as successful.

Mr. Chairman, this information is based on a solid foundation of intelligence. It comes to us from credible and reliable sources. Much of it is corroborated by multiple sources. And it is consistent with the pattern of denial and deception exhibited by Saddam Hussein over the past 12 years. ...

[Note to reader: Please read complete text of prepared speech "The Worldwide Threat in 2003:
Evolving Dangers in a Complex World" available at the link below.]
CIA - Worldwide Threat Briefing before the Senate Select Intelligence Committee, published 02-11-2003

Summary: Secretary of State Colin Powell told a congressional committee February 12 that the impasse over Iraq has reached a decisive moment.

Powell told the House International Relations Committee the world is reaching a moment of truth as to whether the disarmament of Iraq will resolve itself peacefully or be resolved by military force.

"The president still hopes it can be resolved peacefully," Powell said. "I think everybody has that hope. I have that hope. I don't like war, I've been in war, I've sent men [into] war, I've seen friends die in war. But sometimes it is necessary when you need it to maintain international order."

The United States is prepared to lead an international coalition under U.N. auspices or, if the U.N. will not act -- and "demonstrates its irrelevance," then the United States will lead a large coalition of the willing, Powell said.

The House committee was conducting its annual hearing with the secretary on the State Department's fiscal year 2004 budget proposal. Powell gave brief remarks about the budget plan, but he then broke with past practice and immediately launched into a discussion of the global debate over how best to disarm Iraq.

[Note to reader: Link goes to transcript of testimony. For the summary shown above please go here]
Testimony before the House International Relations Committee, published 02-12-2003

Summary: Washington -- Diplomatic conversations are under way concerning the language of a follow-up to United Nations Security Council resolution 1441 on Iraq, White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer confirmed February 12.

"(W)e remain in mid-diplomacy here. And I'm not going to venture in too deep on the play-by-play of diplomatic discussions," he told reporters at his noon briefing.

Officials of three of the five permanent Security Council members -- China, Russia, and France -- have said their countries oppose military action against Iraq at this time and want to give weapons inspectors more time....

"(T)here should not have been any question of negotiating the U-2 (flights) with Iraq; Iraq should have allowed the U-2 to fly under resolution 1441," Fleischer said.

But "negotiations did ensue with Iraq. Iraq then came out and said, just over the weekend, they would allow the U-2 to fly unconditionally. Before the ink was even dry on the Iraqi letter, we found out there were conditions attached to flying the U-2 once again," Fleischer said.

[Note to reader: Link goes to transcript of press briefing. For the summary shown above please go here]
White House Press Briefing - Ari Fleisher, published 02-12-2003

New York -- Outlining a U.S. initiative called the "Future of Iraq Project," a senior U.S. official February 12 said that rebuilding Iraq's infrastructure and protecting Iraq's oil supplies will be an immediate priority in any post-Saddam Hussein reconstruction effort.

In a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations, Stephen Hadley, deputy national security advisor, said that President Bush has not made a final decision whether or when to use military force to disarm Iraq, but extensive planning has begun on how to assist Iraq should military action be taken.

Hadley described the principles guiding the U.S. government's contingency planning for the complex, post-war problems and challenges facing the international community. A joint effort of U.S. officials, representatives of private agencies, and free Iraqis, the planning process has identified five principles and a number of specific tasks that will have to be pursued.

[See also: Dates of 10/01/2001 (Future of Iraq Project) and 2/11/03 (Feith testimony) for background info]
Remarks by Stephen Hadley to the Council on Foreign Relations, published 02-13-2003

The Pentagon activated 39,000 more reservists Wednesday, intensifying a military buildup toward possible war with Iraq that now includes about 150,000 Reserve and National Guard forces deployed in the United States and abroad.

Some of the part-time soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines called to full-time duty will join nearly 130,000 military personnel already in the Persian Gulf, but it remained unclear how many.

[Original web page no longer available]
Los Angeles Times, published 02-13-2003

Hans Blix gives his latest report on Iraqi compliance with resolution 1441 to the UN security council, surprising the members with a more upbeat assessment of the pace of Iraq's disarmament than had been expected. The report, which lists examples of Iraqi compliance with the inspectors, thus failing to provide any clear casus belli, throws into confusion British and American plans to draft a new resolution mandating military action. It severely embarrasses Colin Powell by questioning the US intelligence on Iraqi munitions that he presented to the council earlier in the month.

The foreign secretary, Jack Straw, tried to hold the US-UK line against mounting opposition. He urged all 15 members to "hold our nerve" in the face of President Saddam Hussein.

Among the 13 other council members, however, his words fell on deaf ears. The US and Britain won clear support only from Spain....

The security council now faces a crisis. At best, it is likely to be deadlocked for days. At worst, the Bush administration may decide that it has waited long enough and go it alone.
The Guardian , published 02-14-2003

Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said February 14 that no evidence of illegal nuclear activities has been found in Iraq but his agency is still investigating a number of issues relating to Baghdad's nuclear weapons program.

In a report to the Security Council, ElBaradei said that "IAEA's experience in nuclear verification shows that it is possible, particularly with an intrusive verification system, to assess the presence or absence of a nuclear weapons program in a state even without the full cooperation of the inspected state."

ElBaradei said that the inspections have moved from a "reconnaissance phase" to an "investigative phase" that is probing Iraq's activities in the four years since the inspectors were expelled in 1998. He said that IAEA is continuing its nuclear inspections, has identified facilities where it will re-establish containment and surveillance systems for long-term monitoring, and is taking air samples in key locations....

IAEA is also following up reports of Iraqi attempts to important uranium, "hopefully with the assistance of the African country reported to have been involved," he said. And the agency is still exploring whether the high strength aluminum tubes Iraq had also tried to import were intended for the manufacture of centrifuges for uranium enrichment or conventional rockets.

[See link below for full text of the report]
Hans Blix report to UN Security Council , published 02-14-2003

Secretary of State Colin Powell says a second UN Security Council resolution calling for the disarmament of Iraq "would once again express the intent of the Security Council that Iraq come into compliance" and if Iraq still has not complied, Iraq would face "serious consequences."

In a 14 February interview on CNN, Powell added that President Bush has made clear that "in the absence of a second resolution, if Iraq still has not disarmed, then the United States is willing to lead a coalition of nations that would be willing to join the United States in the disarmament."

Regarding the amount of time before the U.S. would lead a coalition to disarm Iraq, Powell said, "We're talking weeks."
State Dept Transcript - CNN's Andrea Koppel , published 02-14-2003

Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix told the Security Council today his teams have not uncovered any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq but that Saddam Hussein has not accounted for many banned weapons that his government is suspected of having.

Blix's counterpart, nuclear chief Mohamed ElBaradei, told the council that inspectors found no evidence Iraq had resumed its nuclear weapons program and said inspectors could do their job without Iraq's full cooperation.

Secretary of State Colin Powell, attending the meeting, ran into stiff resistance as he pressed reluctant allies to threaten force against Iraq and not be taken in by "tricks that are being played on us."

"The threat of force must remain," Powell said, adding that Iraq was strengthening its links with terror groups. "We cannot wait for one of these terrible weapons to turn up in our cities."
Associated Press, published 02-14-2003

The 5,000-soldier Third Armoured Cavalry Regiment, based at Fort Carson, Colo., was told on Friday to deploy to Kuwait within several weeks, a regiment official said.

The deployment of the regiment, a mobile mechanised unit designed to conduct reconnaissance, security and attack operations, is part of an order signed by U.S. Defence Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld last week dispatching about 20,000 more soldiers to the Gulf region.

The latest deployment orders will bring the total number of U.S. forces in and around the Gulf to more than 160,000, and the tally is expected to exceed 200,000 by month's end, Pentagon officials said.
Gulf News, published 02-17-2003

Excluding forces deployed in direct support of Operation Enduring Freedom, there are probably about 106,000 military personnel in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, including about 450 aircraft of all types.

The number of troops deployed in the area fluctuates on a daily basis, and has averaged between 20,000 and 25,000 in recent years, with typically about 200 aircraft in the region. Forces in the region include a mix of special operations forces deployed in support of US Central Command operations. To enhance force protection throughout the region, additional military security personnel are also deployed.

Ground forces include a variety of units that are normally deployed in the region, which total about 3,700 troops. Forces in the region include a Patriot missile task force with two batteries deployed in Saudi Arabia and two in Kuwait. Virtually all of 3rd Infantry Division has been deployed to Kuwait, though it is possible that some battalions are still in the process of deploying. It is believed that the total Army presence in the region is nearly 26,000 soldiers.
GlobalSecurity.org, published 08-2005

President Bush says war with Iraq is his last choice, but it's preferable to doing nothing if Saddam Hussein will not disarm his country of weapons of mass destruction as required by the United Nations.

"War is my last choice, but the risk of doing nothing is even a worse option, as far as I'm concerned," Bush told reporters at the White House February 18 following the swearing in of William Donaldson as the new Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission....

Asked to comment on the weekend worldwide rallies for peace, Bush made clear that in democracies people are allowed to express their opinion. "Evidently some in the world don't view Saddam as a risk to peace. I respectfully disagree."

White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer, asked about the weekend protests, told reporters that President Bush respects the protestors, "but he thinks that their position is wrong, that the real threat to peace is Saddam Hussein and his possession of weapons of mass destruction."

Bush "approaches all these issues of opposition in a matter of, one, the importance of standing on principle and, two, respecting those who disagree, but continuing to lead if he thinks it will lead to peace," Fleischer said.

[Note to reader: Link goes to transcript of press briefing. For the summary shown above please go here]
Press Briefing by the President, published 02-18-2003

The United States is in consultation with its friends and allies with respect to a second United Nations Security Council resolution on Iraq, Secretary of State Colin Powell told journalists February 19 following his meeting at the State Department with Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga.

He would not give a timetable for seeking a second resolution.

Powell said that, with respect to Iraq, "We hope for a peaceful solution, but we have to make sure that we are ready to force the issue in the absence of a peaceful solution, otherwise, what was the purpose of [Resolution] 1441? What is the meaning of a United Nations resolution?"

[Note to reader: Link goes to transcript of press briefing. For the summary shown above please go here]
Remarks by Secretary Powell After Meeting With Latvian President, published 02-19-2003

The U.N. Security Council February 19 concluded a two-day meeting to hear the positions of other U.N. member states on the disarmament of Iraq. Council members listened to a variety of opinions from about 60 nations as the United States and United Kingdom continued discussions on a followup resolution to 1441 that would support military action if Iraq does not disarm immediately....

[U.S. Ambassador] Negroponte said he was not in a position to say when a resolution would be put forward. (In Washington February 19, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said President Bush "intends to work with our friends and allies to offer a resolution, either this week or next.")...

The overwhelming majority of the countries supported the disarming of Iraq and the need to comply with Security Council resolutions. But many want Iraq disarmed peacefully and urged that the U.N. weapons inspectors be given more time to do their work....

The public debate was requested by the non-aligned movement. South African Ambassador Dumisani Kumalo, representing the group said that "to us, resolution 1441 was, and still is, about ensuring that Iraq is peacefully disarmed."

The last report from the weapons inspectors, Kumalo said, indicates that Iraq is cooperating more proactively and the inspectors have had the opportunity to verify the accuracy of the information that has been provided by other nations. "None of the information provided thus far would seem to justify the Security Council abandoning the inspection process and immediately resorting to the threatened 'serious consequences,'" he said.
State Dept - Washington File, published 02-19-2003

Failing to win Turkey’s approval to base American ground forces there for a possible invasion of Iraq would be a big setback for U.S. war planners, but Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld says it could be overcome.

“It’s doable,” Rumsfeld told a Pentagon news conference Wednesday. “There are work-arounds.” He declined to discuss any specifics.

Plan “B” might involve airlifting infantry directly into northern Iraq from another country or from aboard ships in the northern Persian Gulf, bypassing Turkey, private analysts said.
Marine Corps Times, published 02-20-2003

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says an ample U.S., British and coalition military force is in the Persian Gulf region and ready to go to war against Iraq if President Bush authorizes the use of force.

The coalition military force now assembling includes approximately 150,000 naval, air and army personnel, although that number could reach more than 200,000 by the end of February, according to press reports. Rumsfeld, however, would not provide specific figures during an interview February 20 on PBS television's "NewsHour." Despite the massive buildup under way, Rumsfeld said, it does not mean that war is inevitable. ...

"Plans have been prepared to deal with a full range of possibilities. ... I think the downsides have been widely discussed," Rumsfeld said, and that includes preparations for everything from conventional combat operations to chemical-biological operations and urban street fighting. He said that a number of countries have been moving forces into the region and/or providing military capabilities to the growing coalition.

[Complete transcript available at link below]
State Dept - Washington File, published 02-21-2003

The Bush administration "next week" will offer at the United Nations Security Council an additional resolution on Iraq -- beyond Resolution 1441 that was approved unanimously by the council in November, a senior administration official told reporters February 20.

The action will be taken, the official said, because President Bush believes in the Security Council and the important role it must play in enforcing U.N. resolutions.

"(T)he objective is to have it pass, which means nine votes and no veto," the senior administration official said.

[Note to reader: Gaggle begins at 9:04am EST - the exact time that "On Record" Press Gaggle with Ari Fleischer finished]
Press Gaggle (for background) Aboard Air Force One, published 02-20-2003

Summary: Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith was interviewed February 21 by the Washington Post concerning arrangements the U.S. government is making for a possible post-war situation in Iraq....

Excerpt:

Feith: ...The thing that is important to stress is that the work, the substance of the work that is now generally within this operation has been going on for months, long before this office was created. Part of the reason this office was created is that there was a lot of work being done on the State Department [F]uture of Iraq committees, the Elliott Abrams/Robin Cleveland-chaired reconstruction efforts, humanitarian relief efforts and all that....

Post: [inaudible] hearing last week said it may be a couple of years before the Iraqis --

Feith: This couple of years thing has been terribly misunderstood. Did you see the hearing itself?

Post: I did, and what I understood him to be saying was imagine that at the end of perhaps two years the Iraqis would be in complete control of their government.

Feith: No. I really think -- I watched the tape again specifically on that point because the headlines in a number of press stories and all that was the U.S. envisions a two-year occupation of Iraq.

Post: I didn't get it that way at all.

Feith: What happened was, let me just remind you --

Post: I don't want to use my last few minutes. . .

Feith: Okay. But the thing you've got to know is we are not predicting a timeframe -- It's unknown.
Dept of Defense - Transcript of Interview with Washington Post, published 02-22-2003

Excluding forces deployed in direct support of Operation Enduring Freedom, there are probably about 126,000 military personnel in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, including about 750 aircraft of all types.

The number of troops deployed in the area fluctuates on a daily basis, and has averaged between 20,000 and 25,000 in recent years, with typically about 200 aircraft in the region. Forces in the region include a mix of special operations forces deployed in support of US Central Command operations. To enhance force protection throughout the region, additional military security personnel are also deployed.

Ground forces include a variety of units that are normally deployed in the region, which total about 3,700 troops. Forces in the region include a Patriot missile task force with two batteries deployed in Saudi Arabia and two in Kuwait. Virtually all of 3rd Infantry Division has been deployed to Kuwait, though it is possible that some battalions are still in the process of deploying. It is believed that the total Army presence in the region is nearly 30,000 soldiers.
GlobalSecurity.org, published 08-2005

The U.N. Security Council could be expected to vote soon after March 7 on a new resolution on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, to be introduced in the coming week, according to Secretary of State Colin Powell.

Briefing reporters in Tokyo February 23 after talks with Japanese officials, Powell said "we are into a period of intense diplomacy beginning after the tabling of the [Iraqi] resolution next week.... I don't want to speculate as to how long that period of time might be, but one can see that [chief U.N. weapons inspector] Dr. Blix will be reporting to the Council on the 7th of March, and I would assume that once he has made that report, everybody will have one last opportunity to make a judgment. And shortly after that judgment will have to be made as to what the Security Council should do."

[Note to reader: Link goes to transcript of press conference. For the summary shown above please go here]
State Dept - Press Conference from US Embassy, Tokyo, published 02-23-2003

U.S. soldiers are training Iraqi exiles and expatriates at a Hungarian air base to aid U.S. forces should an invasion of Iraq become necessary. About 700 U.S. soldiers are working at Taszar Air Base, Hungary, to train up to 3,000 Free Iraqi Forces, said Army Maj. Robert Stern, a spokesman for Task Force Warrior in Taszar. Americans in the task force dubbed the training area "Camp Freedom." The Iraqi volunteers, many of whom were tortured by Saddam Hussein, will help U.S. and coalition units in dealing with civil-military affairs.

"The training of the first group has gone very well," Stern said. "These are motivated individuals who are looking forward to beginning their job in support of coalition forces." He said the trainers are also happy with the way instruction is going. He said there were some bumpy spots at the beginning, but the Americans adjusted their style of instruction to fit the group. "Obviously, the first difficulty was having training conducted both in English and Arabic," Stern said.
Dept of Defense - American Forces Press Service, published 02-04-2003

President Jacques Chirac announced last night that Russia had joined France and Germany in putting forward a last-ditch alternative to war on Iraq: a step-by-step programme for the disarmament of Saddam Hussein's regime.

It was reported in New York that the plan had won the endorsement of China, which would give it the backing of three of the security council's five permanent members.

The memorandum, described by observers at the UN as an informal 'counter-proposal' to the draft resolution, states: 'While suspicions remain, no evidence has been given that Iraq still possesses weapons of mass destruction or capabilities in this field.'
The Guardian , published 02-24-2003

The United States, United Kingdom, and Spain co-sponsor a new Security Council resolution saying "Iraq has failed to take the final opportunity afforded to it by Resolution 1441."

The same day, Russia and France submit a memorandum stating that military force should be a "last resort" and that force should not yet be used because there is "no evidence" that Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction. The memorandum also says, however, that "inspections…cannot continue indefinitely. Iraq must disarm." It further adds that Baghdad's cooperation, although improving, is not "yet fully satisfactory."

The memorandum proposes that the inspectors submit a program of work that lists and clearly defines specific disarmament tasks. Such a report is already required under Resolution 1284, which created UNMOVIC in 1999.

The memorandum also suggests "further measures to strengthen inspections," including increasing staff and bolstering technical capabilities. Additionally, it proposes a new timeline mandating regular reporting to the Security Council about inspectors' progress, as well as a progress report to be submitted 120 days after the program of work is adopted.

Neither measure is adopted.

[Note to reader: Text of Draft Resolution available here and see also summary of the: US, UK & Spain Resolution]
Arms Control Association, published 07-01-2003

On February 24, Newsweek broke what may be the biggest story of the Iraq crisis. In a revelation that "raises questions about whether the WMD [weapons of mass destruction] stockpiles attributed to Iraq still exist," the magazine's issue dated March 3 reported that the Iraqi weapons chief who defected from the regime in 1995 told U.N. inspectors that Iraq had destroyed its entire stockpile of chemical and biological weapons and banned missiles, as Iraq claims....

[O]n Wednesday (2/26/03), a complete copy of the Kamel transcript-- an internal UNSCOM/IAEA document stamped "sensitive"-- was obtained by Glen Rangwala, the Cambridge University analyst who in early February revealed that Tony Blair's "intelligence dossier" was plagiarized from a student thesis....

[Note to reader: The Kamel transcript available here (PDF).]

Kamel's defection has been cited repeatedly by George W. Bush and leading administration officials as evidence that 1) Iraq has not disarmed; 2) inspections cannot disarm it; and 3) defectors such as Kamel are the most reliable source of information on Iraq's weapons....

Secretary of State Colin Powell's February 5 presentation to the U.N. Security Council claimed: "It took years for Iraq to finally admit that it had produced four tons of the deadly nerve agent, VX. A single drop of VX on the skin will kill in minutes. Four tons. The admission only came out after inspectors collected documentation as a result of the defection of Hussein Kamel, Saddam Hussein's late son-in-law." ...

Deputy National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley recently wrote in the Chicago Tribune (2/16/03) that "because of information provided by Iraqi defector and former head of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction programs, Lt. Gen. Hussein Kamel, the regime had to admit in detail how it cheated on its nuclear non-proliferation commitments." ...

Their repeated citations of his testimony-- without revealing that he also said the weapons no longer exist-- suggests that the administration might be withholding critical evidence.
Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting (FAIR), published 02-27-2003

Secretary of State Colin Powell dropped heavy hints about Washington’s timetable for war in Iraq yesterday, saying the UN should take vital decisions soon after a weapons inspectors’ report expected on March 7.

Powell told a news conference in Tokyo he expected the UN Security Council to make a judgement about a new resolution on Iraq (to be presented by the US and Britain this week) soon after the inspectors’ report.

“It isn’t going to be a long period of time from the tabling of the resolution until a judgment is made as to whether the resolution is ready to be voted on or not,” Powell said. “Iraq is still not complying and time is drawing to a close when ... the Security Council must show its relevance by insisting that Iraq disarm or that Iraq be disarmed by a coalition of forces that will go in and do it.”
Irish Examiner, published 02-24-2003

Q: Dr. Rice, if the resolution is passed, would the United States government interpret it as being an authorization for military action?

DR. RICE: As you know, we believe that the authorization to enforce the United Nations Security Council resolutions exist already in a number of resolutions, going all the way back to 1991. And I would just remind everybody that 1441 makes very clear that further material breach by Saddam Hussein's failure to comply with 1441 would bring serious consequences. So we believe the authorization is already there.
White House Press Briefing - Condoleezza Rice, published 02-24-2003

President Bush, at a short meeting with reporters at the White House February 25, repeated his call for Iraq's Saddam Hussein to fully disarm Iraq of weapons of mass destruction.

Asked what it would take to avoid military action against Iraq, Bush replied, "The man has been told to disarm. For the sake of peace, he must completely disarm."

But Bush left little doubt that he does not believe this will happen....

The president said he hopes the Security Council will pass the Iraq resolution offered .... by the United States, the United Kingdom and Spain, but he said the resolution is not required for the United States and a coalition of the willing to take military action.

[The summary above taken from here.]
President Meets with National Economic Council, published 02-25-2003

Just after September 11th, I was in a tent in Oman with the sultan of Oman, and we were talking about what had happened in the world. And we discussed the problems where there were people being trained to be terrorists in many countries in that part of the world and elsewhere in the world, and that they were receiving funds to do that, and there were people training them and teaching them how to do that -- young people.

And he said something that was stunning. He said well maybe September 11th was a blessing in disguise. Maybe it will be the thing that will wake up the world so that we will, as free people, take the kinds of steps necessary to see that there is not a September 11th that involved biological or chemical or nuclear weapons. And hopefully, we'll -- he said, we can wake up the world in a way that can save those lives, tens of thousands of lives.

The -- I just pray he's right.
Dept of Defense Transcript - Remarks At The Hoover Institution, published 02-25-2003

The Pentagon has sharply increased the estimated cost of a war in Iraq to as much as $95 billion for the combat phase and immediate aftermath, with huge reconstruction and occupation costs to come later, administration and congressional officials said yesterday.

...Five weeks ago, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld told reporters that the administration was estimating the cost of a possible war at "under $50 billion." Now, several officials said they are working with an estimate of $80 billion just for the Pentagon, plus foreign aid and other expenses. The new figures provide a measure of vindication for Bush's former economic adviser, Lawrence B. Lindsey, who put the figure at $100 billion to $200 billion last fall, only to have other administration officials ridicule his estimate as excessive.

[Article also available to view here.]
Washington Post , published 02-26-2003

Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix said February 26 that even with increased interaction between Iraq and the inspectors he has not seen any indication that Baghdad has made the fundamental decision to disarm.

Speaking with reporters at U.N. headquarters, Blix, the executive chairman of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) said, "I do not think I can say there is evidence of a fundamental decision, but there is some evidence of some increased activity. There is certainly more activity now." ...

Asked to characterize the increased activity, Blix said, "full cooperation or a breakthrough? No, I don't think you can say that. We have a very long list of disarmament issues and it will require a big effort in order to clarify all of those."
State Dept - Washington File, published 02-26-2003

[T]he text of John Brady Kiesling's letter of resignation to Secretary of State Colin L. Powell. Mr. Kiesling is a [20 year] career diplomat who has served in United States embassies from Tel Aviv to Casablanca to Yerevan....

I am writing you to submit my resignation from the Foreign Service of the United States and from my position as Political Counselor in U.S. Embassy Athens, effective March 7. I do so with a heavy heart....

The policies we are now asked to advance are incompatible not only with American values but also with American interests. Our fervent pursuit of war with Iraq is driving us to squander the international legitimacy that has been America’s most potent weapon of both offense and defense since the days of Woodrow Wilson. We have begun to dismantle the largest and most effective web of international relationships the world has ever known. Our current course will bring instability and danger, not security....

Mr. Secretary, I have enormous respect for your character and ability. You have preserved more international credibility for us than our policy deserves, and salvaged something positive from the excesses of an ideological and self-serving Administration. But your loyalty to the President goes too far. ...

I am resigning because I have tried and failed to reconcile my conscience with my ability to represent the current U.S. Administration. I have confidence that our democratic process is ultimately self-correcting, and hope that in a small way I can contribute from outside to shaping policies that better serve the security and prosperity of the American people and the world we share.
New York Times, published 02-27-2003

The U.S. Navy announced it is deploying the USS Nimitz carrier battle group to the Arabian Gulf, the sixth carrier to be dispatched to the region as the United States prepares for war against Iraq.

Moreover, an unspecified number of B-2 Stealth bombers have received orders to deploy to a British base on Diego Garcia, putting them within a few hours of striking Baghdad. They are expected to move to Diego next week.
United Press International, published 02-27-2003

Based on a review of intelligence and an assessment of threats by the intelligence community, the Attorney General in consultation with the Homeland Security Council has made the decision to return the threat level to an elevated risk of terrorist attack, or "yellow" level....

We emphasize that the United States and its interests are still at a significant risk of terrorist attack. Detained al Qaeda operatives have informed U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials that al Qaeda will wait until it believes Americans are less vigilant and less prepared before it will strike again.

[This Elevated (Yellow) Threat level remains in effect until March 17, 2003 when it was raised to High (Orange)]
Joint Statement of Attorney General John Ashcroft and Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge, published 02-27-2003

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has failed to avail himself of a final opportunity to disarm his country of weapons of mass destruction as called for in the four-month-old U.N. Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1441, says Kim Holmes, assistant secretary of state for international organization affairs....

Because Iraq has failed to comply with 1441, Holmes said the United States introduced a draft UNSC resolution February 24 that states "Iraq has failed to take the final opportunity afforded to it." The draft resolution was introduced by the United States, Britain and Spain.

France, Germany and Russia have circulated an alternative proposal to intensify U.N. arms inspections for at least four more months.

The U.N. Security Council held a closed meeting February 27 to discuss the U.S.-British-Spanish draft resolution and the alternative offered by France, but no vote is expected on a new resolution before a report is made to the Security Council by Chief U.N. Weapons Inspector Hans Blix March 7. Holmes said the United States expects a "positive vote" shortly after the Blix report.
State Dept - Washington File, published 02-27-2003

Rumsfeld said the post-war troop commitment would be less than the number of troops required to win the war. He also said "the idea that it would take several hundred thousand U.S. forces, I think, is far from the mark."

Rumsfeld's comments came in response to a question about an estimate of post-war troop strength given in a congressional hearing Tuesday by the Army's chief of staff, Gen. Eric Shineski. Under questioning by lawmakers, Shineski offered the estimate that an occupying force might involve several hundred thousand U.S. troops.
CNN - Politics, published 02-27-2003

In a contentious exchange over the costs of war with Iraq, the Pentagon's second-ranking official today disparaged a top Army general's assessment of the number of troops needed to secure postwar Iraq....

Mr. Wolfowitz, the deputy defense secretary, opened a two-front war of words on Capitol Hill, calling the recent estimate by Gen. Eric K. Shinseki of the Army that several hundred thousand troops would be needed in postwar Iraq, "wildly off the mark." Pentagon officials have put the figure closer to 100,000 troops. Mr. Wolfowitz then dismissed articles in several newspapers this week asserting that Pentagon budget specialists put the cost of war and reconstruction at $60 billion to $95 billion in this fiscal year. He said it was impossible to predict accurately a war's duration, its destruction and the extent of rebuilding afterward.

"We have no idea what we will need until we get there on the ground," Mr. Wolfowitz said at a hearing of the House Budget Committee.

[The original article linked below is available for a fee. You may read the text here as an alternative.]
New York Times, published 02-28-2003

House Democrats then accused the Pentagon official, Paul D. Wolfowitz, of concealing internal administration estimates on the cost of fighting and rebuilding the country....

In his testimony [before the House], Mr. Wolfowitz ticked off several reasons why he believed a much smaller coalition peacekeeping force than General Shinseki envisioned would be sufficient to police and rebuild postwar Iraq. He said there was no history of ethnic strife in Iraq, as there was in Bosnia or Kosovo. He said Iraqi civilians would welcome an American-led liberation force that "stayed as long as necessary but left as soon as possible," but would oppose a long-term occupation force....

Mr. Wolfowitz spent much of the hearing knocking down published estimates of the costs of war and rebuilding, saying the upper range of $95 billion was too high, and that the estimates were almost meaningless because of the variables. Moreover, he said such estimates, and speculation that postwar reconstruction costs could climb even higher, ignored the fact that Iraq is a wealthy country, with annual oil exports worth $15 billion to $20 billion. "To assume we're going to pay for it all is just wrong," he said.

At the Pentagon, Mr. Rumsfeld said the factors influencing cost estimates made even ranges imperfect. Asked whether he would release such ranges to permit a useful public debate on the subject, Mr. Rumsfeld said, "I've already decided that. It's not useful."

[Original web page no longer available]
New York Times, published 02-28-2003

If Saddam Hussein refuses to disarm and makes war inevitable, it will be a war of liberation, not occupation. As President Bush said in his speech to the United Nations last September, "Liberty for the Iraqi people is a great moral cause and a great strategic goal. The people of Iraq deserve it, and the security of all nations requires it." ...

The goals for which we plan are clear. First, along with our coalition partners, we must ensure the rapid flow of humanitarian relief into Iraq. ...

We will also work to rebuild Iraq's infrastructure, which for years has been mismanaged and neglected. Early efforts will include restoring electricity and clean water, as well as addressing the immediate need for medical care and public health.

Over the longer term, we will assist the Iraqi people in creating a more stable and more vibrant economic system. Specifically, we will help them create a modern system of taxation and budgeting, stabilize the dinar, and resolve debt and reparations obligations. ...

Finally, a post-Hussein Iraq should be truly free and democratic. The United States will not seek to dictate to the people of Iraq the precise character of that regime. ...

This is an awesome responsibility. When future scholars look back on the history of the Middle East at the beginning of the 21st century, instead of asking, "What went wrong?" they may instead ask, "Why did it go right?" If they do, one of the answers will be that the free nations of the world understood that their values and their interests pointed in the same direction: toward freedom.

[Article also available here.]
Washington Post, published 02-28-2003

Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
February 2003

Background Note: Iraq

PROFILE

OFFICIAL NAME: Republic of Iraq

Geography Area: 437,072 sq. km.; about the size of California. Cities: Capital--Baghdad (pop. 3.8 million 1986 est.). Other cities--Basrah, Mosul, Karkuk, As Sulaymaniyah, Irbil. Terrain: Alluvial plains, mountains, and desert. Climate: Mostly hot and dry.

[Note to reader: Continues with detailed facts about Iraq at link below]
State Dept - Fact Sheet Profiles Iraq, published 02-28-2003

The chief U.N. weapons inspector reported February 28 that Iraq's reluctant cooperation with inspections has resulted in "very limited" disarmament.

In a written report to the Security Council required by resolution 1284 of 1999, Hans Blix, executive chairman of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), said that "it is hard to understand why a number of measures, which are now being taken, could not have been initiated earlier. If they had been taken earlier, they might have borne fruit by now."

"During the period of time covered by the present report, Iraq could have made greater efforts to find any remaining proscribed items or provide credible evidence showing the absence of such items. The results in terms of disarmament have been very limited so far," he said.

Blix said that Iraq has cooperated with UNMOVIC in terms of "process," helping the inspectors establish operations and allowing immediate access to any site. But getting cooperation on "substance" has been much more difficult, he said.

[Full report available in link below]
UNMOVIC Quarterly Report to UN Security Council, published 02-28-2003

Excluding forces deployed in direct support of Operation Enduring Freedom, there are probably about 153,000 military personnel in the CENTCOM area of responsibility, including about 750 aircraft of all types.

The number of troops deployed in the area fluctuates on a daily basis, and has averaged between 20,000 and 25,000 in recent years, with typically about 200 aircraft in the region. Forces in the region include a mix of special operations forces deployed in support of US Central Command operations. To enhance force protection throughout the region, additional military security personnel are also deployed.

Ground forces include a variety of units that are normally deployed in the region, which total about 3,700 troops. Forces in the region include a Patriot missile task force with two batteries deployed in Saudi Arabia and two in Kuwait. Virtually all of 3rd Infantry Division has been deployed to Kuwait, though it is possible that some battalions are still in the process of deploying. It is believed that the total Army presence in the region is nearly 42,000 soldiers.
GlobalSecurity.org, published 08-2005

[Bill Moyers talks with Former Ambassador Joseph C. Wilson, IV] ...

WILSON: But I think disarmament is only one of the objectives [for war in Iraq]. And the President has touched repeatedly and more openly on the other objectives in recent speeches including this idea of liberating Iraq and liberating its people from a brutal dictator. And I agree that Saddam Hussein is a brutal dictator.

And I agree along with everybody else that the Iraqi people could — would well be far better off without Saddam Hussein. The problem really is a war which has us invading, conquering and then subsequently occupying Iraq may not achieve that liberation that we're talking about.

MOYERS: So this is not just about weapons of mass destruction.

WILSON: Oh, no, I think it's far more about re-growing the political map of the Middle East.

MOYERS: What does that mean?

WILSON: Well, that basically means trying to install regimes in the Middle East that are far more friendly to the United States — there are those in the administration that call them democracies. Somehow it's hard for me to imagine that a democratic system will emerge out of the ashes of Iraq in the near term. And when and if it does, it's hard for me to believe that it will be more pro-American and more pro-Israeli than what you've got now.

MOYERS: Tell me what you think about the arguments of one of those men, Richard Perle, who is perhaps the most influential advocate in the President's and the administration's ear arguing to get rid of Saddam Hussein. What do you think about his argument?

WILSON: Well, he's certainly the architect of a study that was produced in the mid-'90s for the Likud Israeli government called "a clean break, a new strategy for the realm." And it makes the argument that the best way to secure Israeli security is through the changing of some of these regimes beginning with Iraq and also including Syria. And that's been since expanded to include Iran.

MOYERS: So this was drawn up during the '90s…

WILSON: Right. During the '90s, absolutely.

MOYERS: By men outside of all this?

WILSON: Outside of all this, yeah.

MOYERS: And…

WILSON: Now, Richard Perle's been outside of office since the Reagan years.

MOYERS: And this, you're saying that this has become a blueprint for the Bush Administration?

WILSON: Well, I think this is part of what has been the underpinning of the-- of the philosophical argument that calls for basically radically changing the political dynamics in the Middle East and…

...

WILSON: Yeah. The argument that it seems to me — I've done democracy in Africa for 25 years. And I can tell you that doing democracy in the most benign environments is really tough sledding. And the place like Iraq where politics is a blood sport and where you have these clan, tribal, ethnic and confessional cleavages, coming up with a democratic system that is pluralistic, functioning and, as we like to say about democracies, is not inclined to make war on other democracies, is going to be extraordinarily difficult. ...

MOYERS: So you anticipate many unanticipated consequences to a war with Iraq?

WILSON: Not to anticipate unanticipated consequences is a dangerous thing to do. And my military planners used to always tell me, "Hope is not a plan of action." So you don't want to base things on how you hope the outcome is going to turn out.

MOYERS: Talk to me a moment about the notion of preemptive action and regime change. Preemptive action means an attack.

WILSON: That's right. That's right. We have historically reserved as part of our right of legitimate self-defense the authority to go in and take out an enemy before that enemy has an opportunity to take us out. Now what I worry about most is that we've lose focus on the war on terrorism where we've actually gone after al Qaeda and where we should continue to go after al Qaeda both in militarily as well as with our intelligence and our police assets.

We've got lost focus on that. The game has shifted to Iraq for reasons that are confused to everybody. The millions of people who are on the streets of our country and of Europe, as I said the other day, it strikes me as — it may prove that Abraham Lincoln is right. You cannot fool all the people all the time.

They have been sold. We have been sold a war on disarmament or terrorism or the nexus between terrorism and weapons of mass destruction or liberation. Any one of the four. And now with the President's speeches, you clearly have the idea that we're going to go in and take this preemptive action to overthrow a regime, occupy its country for the purposes, the explicit purposes of fostering the blossoming of democracy in a part of the world where we really have very little ground, truth or experience.

And, certainly, I hope along with everybody that the President in his assessment is correct. And that I am so wrong that I'm never invited to another foreign policy debate again.

MOYERS: You're not likely to be after this. (LAUGHTER)

WILSON: Because if I am right, this could be a real disaster. ...
PBS - NOW with Bill Moyers, published 02-28-2003

In the few weeks before its fall, Iraq's Ba'athist regime made a series of increasingly desperate peace offers to Washington, promising to hold elections and even to allow US troops to search for banned weapons. But the advances were all rejected by the Bush administration, according to intermediaries involved in the talks.

As US and British troops massed in the Gulf, Iraqi intelligence sent out a range of compromise feelers through a number of channels in the apparent hope of forestalling the invasion or at least buying time.

The messages were sent through Syrian intelligence, and French, German and Russian diplomatic channels, and as the countdown to invasion ticked away, through retired CIA officials and a Lebanese-American businessman who met the Washington hawk, Richard Perle, in a London hotel.

The first approach appears to have been made last December through the CIA's former head of counter-terrorism, Vincent Cannistraro.

"I was approached by someone representing Tahir al-Tikriti - the Iraqi intelligence chief also known as [General] Tahir Habbush - who said Saddam knew there was a campaign to link him to September 11 and prove he had weapons of mass destruction," said Mr Cannistraro. "The Iraqis were prepared to satisfy those concerns. I reported the conversation to senior levels of the state department and I was told to stand aside and they would handle it," he said. He later heard the Iraqi offer had been "killed" by the Bush administration.
The Guardian, published 11-07-2003

America is determined to enforce the demands of the United Nations Security Council by confronting the grave and growing danger of Saddam Hussein and his weapons of mass destruction. This dictator will not be allowed to intimidate and blackmail the civilized world, or to supply his terrible weapons to terrorist groups, who would not hesitate to use them against us. The safety of the American people depends on ending this threat.
President's Radio Address, published 03-01-2003

After more than a year of intense work, the Bush administration's plan for an assault on Iraq is essentially in place and is based on an unusual approach that envisions simultaneous air and ground operations combining the U.S. advantages in firepower, speed and precision, according to several people familiar with the strategy.

Army Gen. Tommy R. Franks, the chief of U.S. military operations in the Middle East, sat down in the Persian Gulf state of Qatar last week and reviewed the plan with his top Army, Navy, Marine, Air Force and Special Operations commanders. The conclusion of the top secret session, said a U.S. official based in the region, was that everything is ready once President Bush gives the order. ...

One sign of the innovative nature of the plan is that, without much public notice, its first phase is already underway. Special Operations troops are executing missions inside Iraq to prepare the way for later attacks. U.S. and British warplanes ostensibly enforcing the "no-fly" zones in northern and southern Iraq have increased the number and intensity of airstrikes, and recently expanded their list of targets to include Iraqi surface-to-surface missiles. They were attacked, defense officials said, not because they were in the "no-fly" zones and threatened U.S. aircraft but because they were in range of U.S. troops mustering just over the border in Kuwait.

"We've already got a lot of stuff underway -- the air campaign, psychological operations, Special Ops," said Robert Andrews, a former Pentagon official who oversaw Special Operations activities.
Washington Post, published 03-02-2003

WMAL: We're talking to the Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz here on WMAL. I only have a couple more questions for you.

I know you got into it over the last week about the number of troops needed for occupation and how long the troops would have to stay there. Ballpark, how many troops would we need for occupation while we're reconstructing that country? And how long would they been required to stay there at this time?

WOLFOWITZ: The basic point I try to make is you really can't predict these things. You can't predict how long wars will last and you can't predict what you'll need in the way of peacekeeping afterwards. But the notion that it would take several hundred thousand American troops just seemed outlandish.

First of all the number seems outlandish. Secondly, the idea that they would be all American is outlandish. And frankly, for the kind of functions we're talking about there are probably a lot of regular Iraqi forces that could be mobilized if that's needed for peacekeeping.
WMAL Radio - Interview with Senior Defense Officials , published 03-04-2003

More than 4,000 Sailors and Marines attached to ships and units of the USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), along with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (Special Operations Capable), departed from their East Coast home ports March 4.

The Iwo Jima ARG is composed of Commander, Amphibious Squadron 6; the multipurpose amphibious assault ship Iwo Jima; amphibious transport dock USS Nashville (LPD 13); the dock-landing ship USS Carter Hall (LSD 50).
US Navy News, published 03-05-2003

U.S. and British forces in the Persian Gulf have topped 225,000 and could begin a war with Iraq at any time, military officials said Monday. Among those deployed in the Gulf region are a third of the Marine Corps' active force and a quarter of the British army.

With the exception of the Army's 4th Infantry Division, all the major elements of the force envisioned for a strike against Iraq are in place or headed to the region.

The 4th Infantry was to have been deployed in eastern Turkey to attack Iraq from the north, but that was thrown into doubt when Turkey's parliament voted Saturday against granting U.S. forces permission to use its bases. The division remains at its base in Fort Hood, Texas, while the Pentagon decides whether to redirect it to Kuwait or wait to see whether the Turkish parliament takes another vote.

[Original web page no longer available]
USA Today, published 03-04-2003

Senator Edward Kennedy argued against war with Iraq at this time, in a March 4 speech on U.S. foreign policy to the United Methodist Church annual conference in Washington.

"War must always be a last resort," the Massachusetts Democrat said. "All options must be pursued. Inspections still have a chance to work. Progress is difficult. No one said it would be easy. But as long as inspectors are on the ground and making progress, we must give peace a chance, so that war with Iraq does not distract us from dealing as effectively as possible with the obvious and ongoing threat of terrorism by Al Qaeda and the crisis over North Korea's nuclear weapons."

Kennedy, a persistent Senate critic of the administration's plans for Iraq, said "such a war will make the world even more dangerous for Americans -- not less dangerous," and alienate allies the United States needs to fight terrorism.

[Full text of Kennedy's remarks as prepared for delivery at link below]
State Dept - Washington File, published 03-04-2003

The U.S. Army general who would lead any troops into battle in Iraq said today that America's forces in the region are trained, ready and capable.

"If the president of the United States decides to undertake military operations … there is no doubt we will prevail," said Gen. Tommy Franks, commander of the U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Fla.

Franks and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld were quick to caution during a Pentagon media briefing that President Bush has not yet decided to use military force to disarm Iraq.
Dept of Defense - American Forces Press Service , published 03-05-2003

Although the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 happened in the United States, an attack by terrorists with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) -- chemical or biological weapons -- could happen in Europe or anywhere else in the world, Under Secretary of State Marc Grossman said March 3.

"And so, the time has come now to make a stand against this kind of connection between weapons of mass destruction and terrorism. And we think Iraq is a place to make that stand first." ...

Grossman, who is under secretary for political affairs, declined to predict whether the resolution would be adopted, saying only that "we're in a stage now where people are thinking about their positions, and we're making our case. We'll see what happens when the vote comes and people have to put their hands up."

Asked about the overwhelming public opinion in many countries against military action to disarm Iraq, Grossman said, "We are not in favor of war. We are in favor of the peaceful disarmament of Saddam Hussein. We believe the only way that will occur is if Saddam Hussein is surrounded by military force."
State Dept - Transcript of interview with Dutch TV , published 03-05-2003

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld made clear March 5 that replacing Saddam Hussein would be a military objective if force must be used in Iraq.

"[I]n the event force has to be used -- and that decision has not been made -- it will be because of a failure on the part of Saddam Hussein and his regime to cooperate with 17 U.N. resolutions," Rumsfeld said at a Pentagon media briefing. "Therefore, clearly the goal of the use of force would be unambiguously to have people who did not cooperate not [be] there."

Reporters questioned General Tommy Franks, commander of U.S. Central Command, who had briefed President Bush earlier in the day, about U.S. military plans. General Franks, however, was sparing in his comments with the media.

Franks said U.S. troops in the field "are trained, they're ready, they are capable. And if the president of the United States decides to undertake military options with the coalition mentioned by the secretary [Rumsfeld], there is no doubt we will prevail."
Dept of Defense Press Briefing, published 03-05-2003

The White House said March 5 said it still believes that the U.S.-U.K.-Spanish resolution on Iraq currently before the United Nations Security Council will not be vetoed when it comes up for a vote following the March 7 report to the council by chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix.

Once the Blix report is presented, "we will make a determination about the timing" of a vote, White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer said. "But it's all systems go."

The aim of the United States "is to get as many votes as we can" for the resolution, he said. "The goal is to get nine votes or more and not have a veto." ...

Earlier in the day the foreign ministers of France, Russia and Germany told reporters at a joint news conference in Paris that they would "not allow" passage of a U.N. resolution that authorizes war against Iraq.

[Note to reader: Link goes to transcript of press briefing. For the summary shown above please go here]
White House Press Briefing - Ari Fleisher, published 03-05-2003

For example, we know that in late January, the Iraqi intelligence service transported chemical and biological agents to areas far away from Baghdad, near the Syrian and Turkish borders, in order to conceal them, and they have concealed them, from the prying eyes of inspectors.

In early February, fearing that UNMOVIC had precise intelligence about storage locations, the Iraqis were moving prohibited materials every 12 to 24 hours. And in mid-February, concerned about the surveillance capabilities of the U-2 overflights that they finally were going to permit, Iraq was transferring banned materials in old vehicles and placing them in poor, working-class neighborhoods outside the capital. If Baghdad really were cooperating, if they really wanted to comply, if it really was disarmament that they were interested in, they would be bringing all these materials out, not scattering them for protection.
State Dept Remarks at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, published 03-05-2003

Q: Thank you, Mr. President. As you said, the Security Council faces a vote next week on a resolution implicitly authorizing an attack on Iraq. Will you call for a vote on that resolution, even if you aren't sure you have the vote?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, first, I don't think -- it basically says that he's in defiance of 1441. That's what the resolution says. And it's hard to believe anybody is saying he isn't in defiance of 1441, because 1441 said he must disarm. And, yes, we'll call for a vote.

Q: No matter what?

THE PRESIDENT: No matter what the whip count is, we're calling for the vote. We want to see people stand up and say what their opinion is about Saddam Hussein and the utility of the United Nations Security Council. And so, you bet. It's time for people to show their cards, to let the world know where they stand when it comes to Saddam. ...

Q Mr. President, if you decide to go ahead with military action, there are inspectors on the ground in Baghdad. Will you give them time to leave the country, or the humanitarian workers on the ground or the journalists? Will you be able to do that, and still mount an effective attack on Iraq?

THE PRESIDENT: Of course. We will give people a chance to leave. And we don't want anybody in harm's way who shouldn't be in harm's way. The journalists who are there should leave. If you're going, and we start action, leave. The inspectors -- we don't want people in harm's way. And our intention -- we have no quarrel with anybody other than Saddam and his group of killers who have destroyed a society. And we will do everything we can, as I mentioned -- and I mean this -- to protect innocent life.

I've not made up our mind about military action. Hopefully, this can be done peacefully. Hopefully, that as a result of the pressure that we have placed -- and others have placed -- that Saddam will disarm and/or leave the country.
President George Bush Discusses Iraq in National Press Conference, published 03-06-2003